Bouvard on JCPOA's Illusory Inspection Regime

There doesn't seem to be an argument for the deal itself, other than the patently absurd boasting about getting Iran to promise for the nth time not to seek nuclear weapons. Otherwise, it's "look at all we did before the deal" and "it was a failure and thank God we stopped."

@CSomerton Compliance would have to involve US or US-approved inspectors having free rein at all nuclear sites in Iran. I don't see the deal acknowledging that. I think it's a shift from Israel/Saudis/UAE to Qatar/Turkey/minimized Iran. Maybe another explanation will present itself.

@CSomerton @Imperius__13 There may be a question of how transactional you can be before other parties prefer not to make deals with you because a better offer might emerge at any time.

@CSomerton @Imperius__13 It's possible that the deal, and the deal this deal looks forward to, fall apart, the US leaves the region and turns its attention elsewhere, and everything goes back to the way things were before, with Iran a lot worse for wear. A net plus, if minor and temporary. But I think

@CSomerton @Imperius__13 there's a mistake here the US will suffer for over the medium run. I think Trump had a chance to put something in place that would last beyond his term and now I think he won't.

@CSomerton Yes, this is true, but I'm still wondering about whether there's a broader shift toward a Qatar-centered Middle East policy. It might be governed by much more short-term considerations, like the ones you mention.

@CSomerton @Imperius__13 I agree with this, and don't really see anyone explaining why the US and Israel couldn't have accomplished it. Just accusations of others wanting "forever wars," which only conceals the weakness of their position.