Bouvard on Vance's Vulnerability in Republican Primary

Maybe on some level those pounding the Vance inevitability drum have been aware of what a weak candidate he might turn out to be if challenged, both in the primaries and the general, so that his only real chance was to fly through with an aura of unanimity.

@Imperius__13 I don't know why Paul and Cruz come into the discussion. Trump seems open to Rubio; others may emerge. I think there will be a competitive primary, and Vance needs to be tested.

@Imperius__13 No, because Republican Jews have not been undermining Trump. If Trump is successful, whoever is seen as more closely following his path will be the best candidate. Vance is suspect because he's tied to forces undermining Trump. I, of course, have my hands on no reins.

@Imperius__13 Maybe he won't, maybe he will. There's plenty of time to think about it, and there does need to be a real primary. Trump seems to think so as well. I expect the Vance bubble to deflate enough to draw in challengers. I hope for at least one solid anti-groyper candidate.

@Imperius__13 I don't know that Trump has selected Vance, and I don't care about the rest of his family. Vance wants the Jews against him, and I think Jews should oblige him. It will be a learning experience for all. As for the primary, people can watch Vance, and his interactions with Trump,

@Imperius__13 for a couple more years and decide whether they might want to jump in or support an opponent.

@Imperius__13 I dont see Eric directing anything, Don Jr. seems to be a fool, and Ivanka and Jared don't seem likely to take charge. They're not going to drive things. My evidence regarding Vance is his tight connection with Carlson--this is my most generous interpretation.

@Imperius__13 Republican Jews will not support Vance. Maybe some will come around in the general; even that is doubtful. There's nothing to be done about that. I'm mostly an observer here, and I see nothing happening that would make me anything else. So, I'll just say what I see.

@Imperius__13 I don't think things will come together very coherently after Trump. The Democrats have become completely Third World, and Vance clearly wants a good bit of that in the GOP as well--and not only him. The Republicans will fragment.

@Imperius__13 The best bet is more coherent state and extra-state actors cordon off the elected officials and build on whatever Trump leaves them, but that's not a great bet either. If Trump is successful and seen as successful, then state and extra-state actors will have more to work with.

@Imperius__13 None of this means that the Trump children will be directing the future of the Republican party. Trump will probably be able to tip the scales, at least in 2028. Carlson is a Third Worldist--that's his audience and rhetoric. Vance says he wants him in. Do I believe Vance or you?

@Imperius__13 It's true that Jews themselves don't weigh much. But there are still some people in the Republican Party who kind of like Jews and don't want them vilified mindlessly by figures embraced by their leading candidate. They may weigh something. At least that's my hypothesis.

@Imperius__13 Don Jr. will not be a kingmaker. Once his father is off the scene, no one will care about him. The alternative is not to invest in someone who adds those who want to subtract you. Vance has already entered prominently in that discussion and has knocked down guardrails.

@Imperius__13 The next time Vance is asked a groyper question at a public event will be a lot more telling than Fuentes's tantrums.

@Imperius__13 Those building their careers defending Vance and humiliating (or trying to, at least) his haters are also defenders of Carlson. Those defending Vance *like* his devotion to Carlson. They will build their careers calling Mark Levin a witch. This will all play out in 2028.

@Imperius__13 Everyone knows that he knows who Tucker Carlson is. What if the next question is, "is Tucker Carlson one of those awful people"? You yourself have never addressed the question, why stick with Carlson? You veer off into vague generalities--"it's politics, addition and subtraction"

@Imperius__13 I have seen very little of that and such a stance involves a degree of self-contradiction that seems to me hard to sustain. It's not that Vance calls him a friend--he refers favorably to things he says and includes him as an "important voice."

@Imperius__13 It's not a question of "easy stupidity," which in tiself would be inoffensive. It is a question of defamation and incitement against fellow citizens to the point where violence would not be a surprise. Trivialization won't work. Vance will not be able to avoid confrontation.

@Imperius__13 We just disagree on the Trump family. I've never seen a sign of talent or intelligence from Don Jr., and he'd have to have some of that. Keep up guardrails against defamation and incitement against entire groups (or even individuals)--that seems to me specific and helpful.

@Imperius__13 Yes, Vance can play that game if he wants to look like a pathetic coward whom no one should ever trust to confront serious opponents or issues. Very Jeb-like. It's not a question of vapidity. You can only take these questions in by trivializing them, so it's not surprising that

@Imperius__13 you recommend the same for Vance, but I don't think it will work. People really will be bothered by obscene accusations against Jews, even if you don't seem to be able to grasp that. People over 25 are still a large majority.

@Imperius__13 It's the media effect of Trump. Jared and Ivanka have their own specialized celebrity and influence. Eric seems pleasant and probably competent but not very political. Lara is a helpful booster. Don Jr. is a lump with trashy friends. Barron is a great meme.

@Imperius__13 I don't know if it's growing--and I rarely see them mention Vance, although I assume they support him by default. I guess they want to avoid the question, which they can do. It will also be politics when social media is filled with clips of Carlson's greatest hits alongside

@Imperius__13 Vance's extravagant praise and his freakouts at anyone questioning his deep ties and reliance on Carlson.

@Imperius__13 Maybe you just don't understand how much of what Carlson says will sound to tens of millions of people who don't hate Jews. People who aren't paying attention now will be shocked by Vance's solicitousness toward him. But, I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

@Imperius__13 He might be but his political forays have been rare and tepid--the one time I saw him at what I think was a TPUSA event he seemed unprepared and not that interested. It's hard to see him as a kingmaker.

@Imperius__13 This will not be a question of people changing their mind but of being horrified by things they have long been primed to be horrified by. I think he will lose more this way than by condemning Carlson but it's good to finally be clear about the fact that Vance understands that

@Imperius__13 that his political fortunes depend upon him appealing to people who see their Jewish fellow citizens as a threat to the country. Now I can be very clear about why Jews and those who don't hate them will have a problem with him.

@Imperius__13 He does want to be president, so that's a reason. I'm not making any demands, I'm just describing the situation. You can't expect either Jews or those who don't want further penetration of antisemitism into American politics to support a candidate whose electoral prospects

@Imperius__13 depend upon the support of antisemites. How could you?

@Imperius__13 There are no candidates taking on the social programs, but there are possible candidates who can tell Jew haters to fuck off.

@Imperius__13 This may be the guy I met and had a few exchanges with.